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On the eve of the August, 1995 independence referendum, then-United Bermuda Party MP Wayne Furbert and I chatted outside of Number 1 Shed, where inside a capacity crowd of some 1,000 Bermudians exuberantly expressed their support for statehood. Against the backdrop, the then-UBP Minister and pro-independence campaigner said to me: “Brown, I think we’ve got it.” My response was, “Wayne, I think the people in this room will be the only ones in the country to vote for independence.” Earlier in that year, my company Research Innovations, had polled the country and our results showed a mere 30 percent of the voters would support statehood. The actual result was 25 percent.
The moral of the story is that relying solely on one’s own experience and social interactions is often a poor barometer of public sentiment. It can lead to a misreading of the public mood, and for politicians, faulty policy pronouncements. Polling helps to alleviate that.
Conducting polls on matters as diverse as the economy, to housing, taxes and child care, provides policy makers with insights into issues that resonate with the people. When these insights translate into programmes that work and benefit people both the people and politicians are better off.
Almost as important as what the public feels about the issues is the matter of what people feel about politicians. Any poll is a measure of opinion at a specific point in time. When asking about politicians, respondents will reflect on what they know and feel at that moment; when done at regular intervals we can track shifts in opinion over time.
During the 15 years we have been doing this in Bermuda, the approval ratings of some Premiers have shifted dramatically as the public changed their opinion. Premier Jennifer Smith and Premier Ewart Brown both saw changes by as much as 40 percent in their approval ratings during their respective tenures as people reacted to their (1) policies (2) decisions and (3) leadership styles.
The moral of the story is that relying solely on one’s own experience and social interactions is often a poor barometer of public sentiment. It can lead to a misreading of the public mood, and for politicians, faulty policy pronouncements. Polling helps to alleviate that.
Conducting polls on matters as diverse as the economy, to housing, taxes and child care, provides policy makers with insights into issues that resonate with the people. When these insights translate into programmes that work and benefit people both the people and politicians are better off.
Almost as important as what the public feels about the issues is the matter of what people feel about politicians. Any poll is a measure of opinion at a specific point in time. When asking about politicians, respondents will reflect on what they know and feel at that moment; when done at regular intervals we can track shifts in opinion over time.
During the 15 years we have been doing this in Bermuda, the approval ratings of some Premiers have shifted dramatically as the public changed their opinion. Premier Jennifer Smith and Premier Ewart Brown both saw changes by as much as 40 percent in their approval ratings during their respective tenures as people reacted to their (1) policies (2) decisions and (3) leadership styles.
The latest round of approval and favourability ratings provides the first assessment of Premier Cox. A 58 percent approval rating shows confidence in her, especially when examined alongside the very low negative opinion. The large undecided factor at 34 percent no doubt relates to the fact Premier Cox has only held office for two and a half months. This undecided opinion will certainly diminish in the next few months; whether it goes into the approval or disapproval column will depend on public reaction to the same three factors noted earlier.
Since it is inappropriate to undertake approval ratings for all political leaders, the political research community has agreed that favourability ratings allow for fair comparisons in that they measure a leaders’ likeability. At 84 percent, Premier Cox’s favourability speaks to the respect and high esteem she has enjoyed since she entered the political arena. It will be both comforting to her and the Progressive Labour Party. Less comfortable for the United Bermuda Party are Mr Kim Swan’s results. With a favourability rating of 43 percent, this veteran politician sees a majority of residents either not sure or unfavourably disposed toward him. Even more disconcerting are the results for the affable leader of the Bermuda Democratic Alliance, Mr Craig Cannonier. With 75 percent of residents not sure or not liking this leader, it seems clear the BDA needs to engage in self-reflection.
The good and bad news for politicians is that whatever the results are today, they can change tomorrow. Whether the results change in the direction that lends momentum and inspires confidence and longevity, or alternatively, slide down that slope, into the murky realm of political quicksand remains to be seen. For that we must await the next round of polling.
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